The latest:
Israel’s defense establishment has moved to its highest alert level and is preparing for surprise-attack scenarios from Iran, Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, 12 days before Knesset elections and less than three weeks before the US midterms. Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir told commanders this week that multiple warnings across all theaters have raised the probability of escalation.
Details:
- The assessment: The prevailing view in Israel is that no Israeli or American strike on Iran will come before either election, because President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not take political risks beforehand. Israeli officials still rate the odds of an attack as relatively high, according to the Israeli press.
- Netanyahu’s calculation: Sources told Maariv that Netanyahu fears a campaign against Iran in the final two weeks would damage Likud’s chances of staying in power. A senior Likud official said images of a country in shelters, missile strikes and casualties are what the party cannot afford, adding that this reflects Netanyahu’s position.
- The message to Washington: According to the sources, a message passed from Jerusalem to Washington in recent days said Israel prefers military action against Iran begin after the October 27 Knesset vote. Israel also warned that if Iran makes a move, the response would be exceptionally harsh and unprecedented.
- The election question: Netanyahu considers postponing the vote impractical. Basic Law Article 9A requires 80 Knesset members to extend the Knesset’s term, plus special circumstances preventing a timely election. Likud officials believe they cannot secure that support from the opposition.
- The military channel: Axios and Channel 12 reported that Zamir discussed with US Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine the possibility of renewed fighting within three weeks. Zamir warned that resuming war in that window could force a postponement of Israel’s election, given expectations Iran would fire missiles at Israel.
- Trump’s signals: Trump said on October 8 the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, then renewed his threats at an Alaska rally, saying Washington would hit Iran hard. At an Arizona rally he estimated the campaign would end soon and claimed American strikes killed senior figures across Iran’s leadership tiers.
- The denial: The White House denied that Netanyahu and Trump discussed resuming the war. Israeli officials believe the denial was meant to avoid reinforcing claims that Netanyahu shapes Trump’s decisions. The Prime Minister’s Office said the two are in regular contact but did not address the content.
- The strike plans: CNN reported the US military drew up new options including possible use of the MOAB, the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the arsenal, against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites. The roughly 10-ton weapon was last used in Afghanistan in 2017. The White House and Pentagon declined to comment.
- Iran’s posture: Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned Tehran could strike the United Arab Emirates and threatened data centers and internet cables across the region. The Wall Street Journal reported Iran expects American attacks to resume after the midterms and has warned Arab states of a harsh regional response.
- War preparations: Ghlamreza Jalali, head of Iran’s emergency preparedness planning, announced in late September that airports, ports and power stations had been fitted with shelters and alternative supply stocks to keep operating in wartime. Reports say Iran is reinforcing defenses around strategic sites and rebuilding damaged capabilities.
Background:
Washington and Tehran are still exchanging messages through regional mediators on the nuclear program, navigation security in the Strait of Hormuz, and a possible arrangement to prevent further escalation. Those contacts have produced no tangible progress so far.
Between the lines:
The scenario worrying Israeli security officials is not a decision to go to war but a mistake. With both sides simultaneously at elevated alert and preparing for a surprise attack, each could read the other’s defensive moves as preparation to strike first. An Israeli security source said the Revolutionary Guard still feels deterred and treats an attack as a last resort, making an incident, rather than a plan, the likeliest trigger.
What’s next
The Knesset vote on October 27 and the US midterms on November 3 are the two dates Israeli officials treat as the gate. Watch whether Trump moves from threats to an order, and whether CENTCOM completes the preparations the Pentagon requested.
