The latest

The United States is fighting Iran directly 25 years after al-Qaeda’s September 11 attacks killed 2,977 people and triggered wars that reshaped the Middle East. The current conflict began on February 28, 2026, with US and Israeli strikes on Iran and remained unresolved six months later. Iran’s military capabilities have been severely degraded, but Tehran can still threaten regional infrastructure, shipping and US military positions.

Details

• Regional upheaval: The United States invaded Afghanistan within weeks of the attacks, then invaded Iraq in 2003 and overthrew Saddam Hussein. American forces spent nearly two decades fighting in Afghanistan and conducted years of operations across Iraq and Syria.
• Iran’s ascent: Saddam had been a major enemy of Tehran. His removal altered the regional balance, while Iran gained influence within Iraq’s new political and security structures and built an “axis of resistance” including Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and the Houthis.
• Militant evolution: The collapse of Iraqi state institutions helped create conditions for al-Qaeda in Iraq, which eventually evolved into ISIS. Al-Qaeda’s centralized structure was dismantled and Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011, but jihadist groups remain active in Africa, Yemen and South Asia.
• Expanded battlefield: Iranian forces have attacked shipping near the Strait of Hormuz and fired missiles toward US positions. Traffic through the waterway has collapsed, pressuring global energy markets. Houthi gains in Yemen also extend Tehran-linked influence around the Bab el-Mandeb, another critical maritime chokepoint.
• Modern warfare: Unlike the post-9/11 wars, which were largely defined by American ground forces, today’s conflict centers on ballistic missiles, drones, cyber capabilities, intelligence networks and long-range precision strikes. Iran can disrupt bases, commercial shipping and energy infrastructure without matching US conventional power.
• Israeli front: For Israel, the threat combines missiles that can reach its territory, drones, cyber operations and armed groups across several theaters. Strikes launched from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon or Yemen can form parts of the same strategic confrontation.
• Costs and politics: The post-9/11 wars cost the United States trillions of dollars and thousands of military deaths. They also reshaped American politics, deepened skepticism toward prolonged interventions and complicated Washington’s effort to shift strategic attention toward China while managing other global challenges.

Between the lines

MI5 Director General Ken McCallum warned intelligence agencies against preparing “brilliantly to fight yesterday’s enemy” with yesterday’s methods and targets. The next strategic shock, he wrote, will not resemble the last and may already be emerging beyond current attention, as cyberattacks, autonomous drones, artificial intelligence and infrastructure attacks blur traditional categories.

What’s next

The next concrete indicators are whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers, missile attacks on US positions continue, and the six-month conflict moves toward a decision or remains unresolved.