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China’s Oil Reserves Become Strategic Shield During Iran War

Nada Salam

Key Points

  1. China cut crude imports 23% from March to July, using its stockpile to curb exposure during the Iran conflict.
  2. Years of reserve-building, discounted Russian and Iranian purchases, and cleaner transport alternatives strengthened Beijing’s energy resilience.
  3. The buffer could help China withstand disrupted shipping or Western pressure during a potential conflict over Taiwan.

The latest

China’s vast oil reserves enabled Beijing to sharply reduce imports after war erupted in Iran, limiting pressure on global crude prices while protecting its economy from supply disruption. Estimated at between 1 billion and 1.4 billion barrels, the stockpile reflects years of spending and planning under Xi Jinping to reduce a longstanding vulnerability: China’s dependence on imported crude moving through maritime chokepoints that could be blocked during a confrontation with the US or its allies.

Details

  • Reserve scale: The stockpile is equivalent to about 120 days of imports and was estimated last year to exceed US reserves by nearly 600 million barrels. China does not publish the size of its strategic holdings or disclose oil consumption, leaving analysts to calculate apparent demand from refinery throughput and net trade in refined products.
  • Accelerated buildup: China increased stockpiling from 2024 at an estimated rate of 1 million to 1.2 million barrels a day. Between 2022 and 2025, Russian crude imports rose 26%, while Iranian purchases more than doubled as both suppliers expanded shadow-fleet shipments to circumvent sanctions and sell discounted oil.
  • Measured drawdown: Commercial inventories were not drawn down until early May, two months after the US attacked Iran. China then withdrew about 700,000 barrels a day through mid-August, while aboveground strategic reserves remained largely intact. Stockpile use likely explains roughly half of the recent import decline, energy analysts said.
  • Export restrictions: Gasoline exports plunged 93% in the second quarter from a year earlier, diesel exports fell by a quarter and jet-fuel exports halved. Refinery runs dropped to roughly 12.5 million barrels a day in June and July, from more than 15 million before the war, as domestic price caps squeezed margins.
  • Demand and costs: Renewables supplied about two-fifths of electricity generation in the first half, while new-energy vehicles represented half of new-car sales. From January through July, road traffic fell about 2% and rail passenger numbers rose 4%. Yet weaker oil and petrochemical activity accounted for an estimated 90% of the second-quarter industrial-production slowdown.

Background

China made energy security a national priority in 2014, concerned that most imported oil crosses the Strait of Malacca near Singapore. Beijing has since supported renewable power, electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, high-speed rail and coal-to-chemicals processing. The Foreign Ministry said restoring peace and stability in the Gulf and Middle East remains the priority.

What’s next

Oil markets will track when China resumes larger crude purchases, alongside refinery operating rates, inventory withdrawals and shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz. Those indicators will show how Beijing balances economic growth against preserving its strategic buffer.

 

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