The latest

Saudi Arabia is sending more crude north through the Red Sea to Egypt’s Sumed pipeline, replacing a southern route through Bab al-Mandab as attacks claimed by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis threaten Saudi-linked shipping. The latest workaround is the kingdom’s second major rerouting in six months, after the war in Iran effectively removed the Strait of Hormuz as its principal Persian Gulf exit.

Details

• Hormuz disruption: Before the war, Hormuz carried about 20 percent of global oil and substantial natural gas volumes, much of it from Saudi Aramco. Iranian military strikes forced shippers to bypass the strait after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 and Tehran retaliated.
• First workaround: The kingdom shifted crude through its East-West pipeline from eastern fields to Yanbu. Tankers then sailed south through Bab al-Mandab, which became Saudi Arabia’s main oil conduit to Europe and Asia after Hormuz traffic was disrupted.
• Houthi blockade: The Houthis, who control a significant part of Yemen, declared a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked shipping on July 20. Multiple attacks on such vessels were subsequently reported in the Red Sea, while Kpler data showed Saudi crude flows through Bab al-Mandab dropping sharply.
• Sumed mechanics: Because the Suez Canal cannot accommodate fully loaded giant oil tankers, ships unload at Ain Sokhna on Egypt’s Red Sea coast. Sumed carries the crude to the Mediterranean, where the same tanker can reload after transiting Suez or another vessel can collect it.
• Volume surge: More than 1.9 million barrels daily traveled via Sumed in August, up from fewer than 650,000 in June, Kpler said. Matt Smith, Kpler’s commodity research director, said most of those exports were Saudi crude.
• Asian cost: Reaching China, South Korea, Japan and other Asian markets by going around southern Africa adds two to four weeks. Extra fuel and operating expenses raise costs by at least $5 per barrel, Smith said, leaving Asia to pay more or source crude elsewhere.
• Aramco flexibility: Chief executive Amin H. Nasser said Aramco was “actively increasing” flexibility across all three routes. Analysts say Saudi Arabia is seeking to expand East-West pipeline capacity by two million barrels daily. Aramco declined to comment on the new Egyptian route.

Between the lines

Neil Quilliam, a Gulf expert at Chatham House, said simultaneous threats to maritime choke points expose the limits of Saudi resilience. He also said choosing detours over export cuts could reinforce confidence in the kingdom as a reliable supplier, even as regional instability exposes its vulnerability.

What’s next

The next indicators are August-to-September volumes through Sumed and Bab al-Mandab, and progress on the proposed two-million-barrel-per-day East-West expansion. Nasser said any reduction in shipping routes would affect sectors beyond oil and gas across the global economy.