The latest

The United States has opened an economic campaign against Iran that could heighten military escalation Washington seeks to avoid. As Tehran’s currency crisis, inflation, unemployment and fuel shortages worsen, Iranian officials frame the pressure as a new phase of war and promise retaliation. The confrontation turns on whether trading partners restrict Iran’s remaining economic links and whether Tehran acts on threats against Gulf oil flows.

Details

• Economic D-Day: Bessent called the package an “economic D-Day” Monday but offered few implementation details. He identified gold, digital assets, technology, aviation and shipping as targets. Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madani Zadeh called the effort an “economic terrorist attack,” said Tehran had tools to respond, and later said the government had prepared a two-year plan for handling new sanctions.
• Gulf oil threat: A day before Bessent’s announcement, top security official Mohsen Rezaei said “not a single drop” of oil would leave the region if Iran’s Gulf neighbors joined the US effort, adding that they would be treated as enemy states. The Revolutionary Guards described economic warfare as the “main battlefield” in the current confrontation.
• Rial at record: Iran’s rial has fallen to new lows, depreciating 41 percent since December, when the exchange rate ignited protests that became weeks of nationwide unrest and drew a deadly security crackdown. Inflation and unemployment have surged, and everyday goods are increasingly unaffordable. Damage to energy infrastructure from US strikes and the continuing naval blockade further strained fuel supplies.
• Civilian lifelines: Esfandyar Batmanghelidj of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation said the targeted sectors are “lifelines for the Iranian people.” Gold and digital assets protect savings from inflation, technology preserves links abroad, aviation connects families across borders, and shipping carries essential goods including food and medicine. Analysts warn that ordinary Iranians, rather than the country’s leadership, are likely to bear additional pain.
• Trade partner test: The campaign depends on Washington persuading China, Russia and Turkey, crucial Iranian trading partners, to participate. Economist Mahdi Ghodsi said credible secondary-sanctions risks could lead them to protect their larger financial and commercial interests with the United States by reducing services to Iranian entities. Tehran argues that decades of sanctions have taught the Islamic Republic how to withstand renewed pressure.

Between the lines

Washington presents economic pressure as an alternative to renewed war, while Tehran calls it the next phase of the conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes in February. Iran expert Sina Toossi warned that squeezing Iran’s lifelines could increase its incentive to impose costs on participating states.

What’s next

The indicator will be whether China, Russia and Turkey reduce financial, shipping or commercial services to Iranian entities after Washington details implementation. Their response to secondary-sanctions pressure will determine how tightly Iran’s trade channels are constrained, while any disruption to Gulf oil exports would mark Tehran’s threats becoming operational.