The latest
Talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz have reached a critical stage, with Qatar saying draft language for a de-escalation arrangement is circulating and US officials voicing optimism. Iran has not announced progress, while reports say its top leadership must still approve a temporary Iran-Oman shipping plan and unresolved security and mine-clearance terms.
Details
- Temporary route: Two people briefed on the negotiations told the Financial Times that Iranian and Omani negotiators had agreed on a temporary arrangement. Ships would enter through Iranian waters and leave through a channel located mostly in Omani waters, although Iran’s leadership has not approved the plan.
- Safety test: Under the reported proposal, Iran would initially send vessels, including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers, through the passage to check for mines and verify its safety before admitting other commercial shipping. Iran has not publicly confirmed those details.
- European role: Bloomberg cited diplomats as saying Tehran is considering allowing European countries to remove mines, reversing its previous public position against foreign participation. Independent clearance could provide shipping companies and insurers with additional assurance that the waterway is safe.
- Security conditions: Any European operation would require Iranian protection guarantees, a sustainable ceasefire and approval from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Some Guard members continue to insist that Iran should retain sole responsibility for defusing mines, according to Bloomberg’s sources.
- Control dispute: Iran is seeking authority over maritime traffic and fees for using the strait, demands opposed by Washington and Gulf states. Oman has proposed a model resembling the Strait of Malacca, where passage remains toll-free but voluntary contributions can support navigational safety.
- Diplomatic signals: Qatari spokesman Majed al-Ansari said negotiations were at an advanced stage. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio also reported progress, while stressing that the parties had not reached a final agreement. Bessent said an accord could come Tuesday or Wednesday, while Qatar described its focus as a short-term resolution to prevent further confrontation.
- Market reaction: Brent crude fell more than 5% below $80 a barrel, according to Bloomberg, as expectations of an agreement strengthened. The S&P 500 also reached a record during trading.
Background
An earlier arrangement intended to restore shipping gradually collapsed after attacks on vessels using the southern route near Oman. US strikes inside Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone attacks renewed the escalation, leaving control of Hormuz central to ceasefire diplomacy.
What’s next
The immediate test is whether Iran’s leadership and national security committee approve the Iran-Oman arrangement. The parties must then announce the shipping route, mine-verification process and security guarantees required before any European naval deployment.
