On the ground, Ali Larijani’s name has now been added to the list of first-tier casualties.
The war has not moved toward de-escalation. It is instead moving toward widening pressure all at once on the strait, the Gulf, Baghdad, and Lebanon.
Oil has climbed back above the $100 threshold for Brent, amid the faltering US effort to assemble a broad naval force to reopen the passage.
The picture is now coming together around one fact: the war is pressing on the entire region all at once.
The Gulf is facing a direct test, with missile and drone attacks hitting both the security and oil spheres, while Hormuz remains the greatest source of danger to the global economy.
Baghdad has remained on alert after attacks near the Green Zone and the vicinity of the US embassy, while the Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon has opened a new door to the possibility of the war expanding on the ground.
On the strait front, the crisis is still awaiting a solution.
Some tankers have managed to pass through, but that has not dispelled the risks, as shown by oil rising about 3% today, with Brent crude climbing to $103.28 a barrel, at a time when some regional producers’ pumping capacity has declined due to strikes, fires, and the security fragility around export routes.
Over Gulf cities, Iranian attacks are hitting airspace and oil infrastructure, pushing states to intercept drones and missiles and to temporarily close their airspace. Even so, the Gulf states are still acting defensively for now.
In Baghdad, the night was anything but ordinary.
The attacks near the US embassy and the Green Zone confirmed that Iraq remains one of the arenas most vulnerable to a rapid slide if the parties decide to shift the confrontation from limited signaling to open-ended attrition.
As for Lebanon, it has entered a more dangerous phase.
Israel has opened a ground front in the south, and the possibility of an invasion is increasing.
The most ambiguous development so far concerns Ali Larijani.
Israeli media says Larijani has been assassinated. The inclusion of his name at this level of targeting suggests the circle of attacks is moving closer to the highest political-security echelon.
What comes next?
The most likely near-term scenario is not a comprehensive truce, but the continuation of a simultaneous pressure equation:
Pressure on Hormuz to raise the economic cost, pressure on the Gulf to expand deterrence, pressure on Baghdad to prevent the American front from stabilizing, and pressure on Lebanon to dismantle the support front.
But the real paralysis so far remains political: Washington wants a broader naval coalition, while allies are hesitant, markets are waiting, and the region is paying the bill every hour.
