The latest:
Washington may step back from direct negotiations with Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz and leave them to Gulf states, Associated Press reported, citing an unnamed source familiar with the matter. The same source said President Donald Trump believes oil shipments through the strait are nearing pre-war levels and is growing more confident he can declare his military objectives met.
Details:
- The reported shift: According to AP’s source, Trump’s thinking rests on two judgments: that traffic through Hormuz has largely recovered, and that he can credibly announce the campaign’s goals achieved. It was not specified which Gulf governments would take over the file, or on what timetable.
- The shipping data: UN figures show October recorded the highest number of incidents against commercial vessels in the strait since February, and passage remains hazardous. The Revolutionary Guard announces the targeting of another oil tanker almost daily, accompanied by footage of fires at sea.
- Vance sidelined: Trump posted Thursday that the United States no longer needs a deal with Iran, and instructed Vice President JD Vance, who had led earlier talks with the Iranians, to focus entirely on domestic matters. The post followed a Wall Street Journal report that Vance was considering meeting the Iranians face to face.
- The Qatari channel: The reversal began earlier in the week after Trump met Qatar’s prime minister. He then said large-scale strikes on Iran had become unlikely and the war was effectively over militarily. Middle Eastern diplomats said Qatari mediation appeared to be moving in the right direction after that meeting.
- Mediators in limbo: Two Middle Eastern diplomats said the process is now clouded by Trump’s contradictory statements. One questioned why Vance was removed from the file. The other said talks are on hold pending clarity from the White House, and that Iranian intermediaries are unsure whether Trump has dropped diplomacy.
- Trump’s suspicion: One source said Trump believes the Iranians are not acting in good faith, a judgment that sits behind his public shift away from a negotiated settlement. He has not set conditions for resuming the track.
- Strikes not ruled out: In an interview with conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt, Trump declined to rule out a return to strikes. He said the US military is on alert and monitoring activity at Mount Machoush, adding he would not hesitate to intervene if matters go badly.
- Washington’s framing: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said economic pressure on Iran is strong enough to make military action unnecessary, letting the administration claim leverage without committing to strikes or a deal. Democratic Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey said Trump lit the fuse on foreign policy and is now trying to walk away.
- The summit: The White House confirmed Trump will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen. A senior US official said Trump intends to raise Iran; Ukraine is not expected to come up, as Kyiv-Moscow talks run through a separate channel.
Background:
Trump’s mixed signaling on continuing the war in Iran dates to the midterm elections lost by Republicans. Vance had led the earlier negotiating track with Tehran before being pulled off the file this week.
Between the lines:
Military analyst Ron Ben Yishai assessed that a weak US-Iran deal would let Tehran rebuild and expand its destructive capabilities and those of its proxies, while allowing Trump to declare victory and withdraw the American force massed for action. He argued such a step would gut the deterrence achieved in the 2025-2026 operations and leave Israel isolated, possibly barred from renewing the war.
What’s next
Thursday’s meeting with Putin and Xi in Shenzhen, where a senior US official said Trump will raise Iran. Also watch whether the White House clarifies who now leads the file, and the monthly incident count in the strait.
