The latest:
Israel has passed the United States intelligence asserting that Iran is considering using chemical weapons against its adversaries, US and regional officials said, prompting concern among some American officials and deep skepticism among others. Iranian officials told the New York Times that Tehran would resort to such weapons only if it were attacked with a nuclear weapon. Iran has publicly denied possessing chemical weapons.
Details:
- The Israeli case: In talks with US spy agencies over the past two weeks, Israeli officials described the chemical weapons threat as more urgent than Iran’s nuclear ambitions, according to US officials. They said they believe Iran is working to mount such weapons on missiles or smuggle them into Israel or another country.
- The skeptics: Some US officials assess the Israeli intelligence is part of a pressure campaign by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to push the Trump administration back into major combat operations against Iran. Others argue the warnings deserve to be taken seriously given recent alerts about Iranian preparations to strike American interests.
- The Gulf reaction: Israel shared some of the material with officials in Gulf states, several of whom doubted Iran was planning chemical weapons use, according to US and regional officials. A regional official said Israeli officials presented assessments without supporting evidence, and described Gulf governments as treating the claims as unserious.
- Iran’s position: Tehran has publicly denied holding chemical weapons and previously cast the allegations as psychological warfare waged by Israel and Netanyahu. A spokesman for Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment. The White House declined to comment, as did the CIA.
- Israel’s response: A spokesman for the prime minister said Israel is closely tracking every threat posed by what he called the Iranian terrorist regime and is prepared to confront it. The Israeli military declined to comment on the intelligence or on civil defense preparations.
- On the ground: Israel’s Home Front Command is running drills nationwide this week, but chemical weapons readiness is not a core part of them, according to two officials in the unit. The command has issued no broad reminders to its officers or the public on safety guidance for such a scenario.
- The track record: Iran acknowledged in 2003 that it developed chemical capabilities during the 1980s war with Iraq but said it later dismantled them. The director of national intelligence warned in 2024 that Iran probably aims to continue chemical and biological research and development for offensive purposes.
- The expert read: Dana Stroll, the Pentagon’s senior Middle East policy official under the Biden administration and now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Iran’s stockpiling of chemical weapons components has been known for over two decades but Tehran has never used them. Existential pressure, she said, could change that.
- The threat level: US agencies assess the danger to Americans in the Middle East and elsewhere is at its highest since the war began in February. On October 23, National Intelligence Director Jay Clayton sent a memo to Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio warning of Iranian attacks, placing diplomats on heightened alert.
- The military clock: US Central Command has a plan to strike Iran starting Wednesday, after the midterm elections and while three aircraft carriers are in the region, US officials said. The window is brief: one carrier must return to base after early November, a period of moonless nights the US military favors for attacks.
Background:
Chemical weapons are an acutely sensitive subject in Iran. During the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein’s use of them killed thousands and left roughly 100,000 Iranian veterans and civilians with chronic health problems for decades, according to Iranian experts.
Between the lines:
For some US officials, the current debate echoes the flawed 2002 assessments on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Analysts also note Netanyahu is fighting for political survival after last week’s election left him without a clear path to a government, and some believe he could use a security emergency as leverage on opposition leaders. Within US intelligence, the dispute is less about whether Iran develops such weapons than whether its leaders would ever use them unprovoked.
What’s next
Watch Wednesday, the first day of the Central Command strike window, and whether US diplomats secure a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing Iran’s nuclear program before the carrier window closes in early November.
