The latest

Bitcoin’s one-month realized volatility has dropped to 25.2%, a level breached on the downside during only about 5% of trading days since 2015. The retreat strengthens the case that the cryptocurrency is moving beyond its most speculative phase, while JPMorgan continues to treat volatility and unstable correlations as the principal obstacles to including Bitcoin in model investment portfolios. Checkonchain founder James Check argues that this calm is itself Bitcoin’s strongest bullish case.

Details

• Realized range: Realized volatility measures the intensity of price moves over 30 days. Glassnode’s annualized normal range has narrowed to 30%-52%, from roughly 55%-78% in mid-2022. The latest reading places Bitcoin in one of its calmest periods since the comparison series began in 2015.
• Maturing asset: Check, a former Glassnode analyst, told the Honest Money Show on October 27 that becoming an ordinary asset would be “the most bullish thing” for Bitcoin. He linked that shift to the fading existential risks surrounding the cryptocurrency.
• Shallower drawdowns: Bitcoin fell about 54% from its $126,000 peak in October 2025 to $58,379 on June 30, compared with declines of 84% in 2018 and 77% in 2022. Check said stabilization near $60,000 rather than $40,000 reflected fewer investors expecting Bitcoin to fail. Bluefin research head Edward Wu also expects future crashes may be less severe.
• Long-term outlook: JPMorgan Asset Management added Bitcoin to its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on October 19, covering a 10-to-15-year horizon. Its first return estimate for the asset is 10% annually, versus 7.5% for large US stocks and 5.5% for gold.
• Portfolio exclusion: The bank kept Bitcoin out of model portfolios, citing unstable correlations and 55% historical volatility, nearly three times that of stocks and gold. It said Bitcoin’s role could expand if volatility declines and correlations stabilize, but set no allocation or timetable for reconsideration. The current 25.2% reading is a shorter-term measure and less than half the bank’s assumption.
• Inputs challenged: Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan argued that JPMorgan’s volatility input was overstated. Check estimated that an average 2% allocation across model portfolios could attract a huge volume of capital to Bitcoin. The estimate frames even a small allocation as potentially consequential for demand.

Between the lines

The gap between JPMorgan’s 55% historical assumption and the current 25.2% monthly reading cuts to the core of the bank’s caution. If lower volatility persists, one rationale for excluding Bitcoin from model portfolios would weaken, bringing the bank’s conditions closer to Check’s maturity argument.

What’s next

The key indicator is whether realized volatility remains near 25% for longer, followed by any change to Bitcoin’s model-portfolio status in JPMorgan’s next capital-market assumptions review.