Dubai’s real GDP slips 2.3% to 473 billion dirhams in H1 2026

The latest:

Dubai’s real gross domestic product came in at about 473 billion dirhams in the first half of 2026, down from 484 billion a year earlier, a 2.3% contraction, according to data from the Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment at Digital Dubai. Measured at current prices, output reached roughly 505 billion dirhams, a rise of 0.2%. Several strategic sectors kept expanding through the period.

Details:

• The headline figures: Real GDP of 473 billion dirhams for January through June 2026 compares with 484 billion in the same period of 2025. The current-price measure, which captures price movements, rose 0.2% to roughly 505 billion dirhams, meaning the real decline reflects inflation rather than a drop in nominal activity.
• Finance leads: Financial and insurance activities grew 8.8% in real terms, lifting value added to 65.9 billion dirhams from 60.6 billion a year earlier. The sector’s share of GDP rose to 14% from 12.5%. At current prices it grew 8.1%, with value added of 64 billion dirhams.
• Fastest growth: Human health and social work activities posted the strongest real expansion at 14.3%, and 16.7% at current prices, with constant-price value added climbing to about 6.2 billion dirhams from 5.4 billion in the first half of 2025.
• Digital and utilities: Information and communications grew 2.7% at constant prices and 1.6% at current prices, with value added reaching 24.7 billion dirhams against 24 billion a year earlier. Electricity, gas, water and waste management rose 5.4% in real terms to 10.2 billion dirhams, and 7.4% at current prices.
• Construction and services: Construction grew 2.4% in real terms, with constant-price value added of 33.2 billion dirhams and current-price value added of 35.3 billion, up 8.6%. Government services rose 2.9% at constant prices and 5.7% at current prices, while education grew 1.2% and 1.5% respectively.
• The contractions: Transport and storage recorded constant-price value added of 50.6 billion dirhams, a 7.4% decline. Wholesale and retail trade grew 2% at current prices in line with 4% growth in foreign trade, but higher prices pushed the real measure down 6% to 96.9 billion dirhams.
• Real estate split: Real estate grew 5.4% at current prices, with value added of 65.1 billion dirhams against 61.8 billion a year earlier, but contracted 2.5% at constant prices to 55.8 billion. Manufacturing rose 0.5% at current prices to 24.1 billion dirhams while slipping 0.9% in real terms.
• Sector weights: The three largest contributors to real GDP were wholesale and retail trade at 20.5%, financial and insurance activities at 14%, and real estate at 11.8%, followed by transport and storage at 10.7%.
• Official framing: Hilal Saeed Al Marri, director general of Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism, said the performance reflects an economy capable of handling a period marked by “a great deal of global change.” Hadi Badri of the Dubai Economic Development Corporation pointed to continued investment and business-formation momentum.
• Data caveat: Younis Al Nasser, chief executive of the Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment, said the results show divergence across activities and should be read within a full picture covering the size of the economy, its sectoral structure and each activity’s contribution and trend.

Background:

Dubai measures its economy two ways: constant prices, which strip out inflation and define real growth, and current prices, which do not. The gap between the two readings is why output can rise nominally while contracting in real terms.

Between the lines:

The divergence is concentrated in trade, transport and real estate — three of the four largest contributors to real GDP, together worth more than 40% of output. Because finance and health are growing from much smaller bases, their double-digit gains cannot offset declines in the heavyweight sectors, which is why the headline number fell despite broad sectoral expansion.

What’s next

Full-year 2026 national accounts and second-half data from the Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment will show whether trade and transport stabilize, and whether finance holds above a 14% share of GDP.