The New York Times: Houthis Seize Bab al-Mandab in One Night, Reigniting Yemen’s War

The latest:

A single night of collapse handed the Iran-aligned Houthi militia control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which roughly 10 percent of global trade passes. Saudi Arabia launched a bombing campaign this week, with U.S. intelligence and targeting assistance, to help Yemen’s internationally recognized government retake the ground. Government-allied forces claimed significant gains by Tuesday.

Details:

• The warnings: Lt. Gen. Tareq Saleh, the Yemeni government commander holding the coast, appealed to Riyadh and Washington before the offensive, according to a Yemeni government official and two senior Yemeni military officers. They said he requested Saudi air cover and American electronic jamming of Houthi communications, and received little from either.
• The American position: U.S. officials offered planning help and intelligence, including on Houthi troop movements, but stressed the aid was limited and excluded airstrikes, according to current and former American officials. Two senior U.S. officials and one former senior official said Washington had spent months urging Riyadh to unify the government’s fractious forces.
• The offensive: The Houthis shelled Mokha with missiles and drones starting Aug. 9 to sever its sea supply line, then launched a ground offensive on Sept. 3, according to two Yemeni military officers. Statements by Saleh’s forces put the Houthi deployment at nearly 80,000 fighters backed by Iranian advisers.
• The denial: Houthi political official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti rejected the claim of Iranian support and credited the victory to capabilities developed over years of war. He described the campaign as an effort to liberate Yemen from occupation and dismissed the opposing forces as Saudi mercenaries.
• The breakdown: The Houthis first broke through at Kadaha, a mountainous area split between Saleh’s forces and a rival faction whose commanders distrusted one another and could not coordinate, according to four Yemeni government and military officials. Two Yemeni military officers said Saudi Arabia carried out only minimal airstrikes to assist its allies.
• The collapse: After the Houthis took a major military camp east of Mokha on the night of Sept. 9, government troops fled to Aden rather than regrouping, abandoning the coast and an island inside the strait. A soldier described communications going dark before shouts of retreat swept the line.
• The casualties: Yemen’s government lost roughly 1,800 square miles overnight. Saleh’s group said at least 500 of its fighters were killed and more than 1,500 wounded. The Houthi death toll has not been disclosed. More than 180,000 civilians have been displaced in recent weeks.
• The aftermath: Saleh and several commanders flew to Riyadh after Mokha fell, according to a Yemeni government official and two military officers. One officer close to him said the general is regrouping forces and treating the wounded, and that an investigation into the defeat will follow eventually.
• The escalation: The Houthis publicly told the international community they threaten only Saudi Arabia, not maritime security, while pledging to liberate all of Yemen. President Rashad al-Alimi declared full war on Sunday, aiming to reclaim all territory lost over 12 years. Oil surged above $100 a barrel.

Background:

The Houthis began in the 1990s as a Zaydi religious movement, seized Sanaa in 2014 and survived a Saudi-Emirati campaign that killed hundreds of thousands. A 2022 truce let them expand their arsenal. The Emirates withdrew in January, leaving Riyadh to consolidate the government’s rival factions.

Between the lines:

The defeat traces less to Houthi strength than to a government that could not fight as one: rival commanders at Kadaha failed to coordinate, and troops fleeing to Aden were barred from the city by nominal allies. Analyst Gregory Johnsen said the Yemeni government is essentially a fiction whose factions fight each other more than the Houthis.

What’s next

Watch whether the government’s claimed gains around the strait hold, how far Saudi airstrikes extend, and whether the Houthis act on their threatened blockade of Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.