The latest:
Iran must make a tangible reduction in its uranium enrichment capacity to end the seven-month war, Vice President JD Vance told Reuters, rejecting guarantees about future weapons dismantlement as a substitute. A day earlier Trump said he was always open to direct talks with Tehran, while on Tuesday he said his biggest problem was that nobody knows who runs the country.
Details:
- Vance’s condition: Vance said in an interview conducted Monday, after a campaign trip in Alaska, that any agreement would require Iran to cut its enrichment capability rather than offer assurances about future nuclear weapons rollback. He framed the demand as the core test of Tehran’s stated intentions.
- The 60% argument: Vance questioned why a country with no weapons ambition would need fuel enriched to 60%, saying anyone wanting to demonstrate commitment should stop producing highly enriched fuel. He added that Washington would not accept words in place of actions, and remains open to a deal.
- Who decides in Tehran: Vance said Washington has noticed that decision-making in Iran is not entirely clear. Separately, Trump said Tuesday that the second group of Iranian leaders is gone and that his biggest problem is that nobody knows who runs the country.
- Tehran’s response: Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said Sunday that American officials are fully aware of who their Iranian counterparts are and how the decision-making system works, a direct rejection of the US framing of confusion at the top in Tehran.
- Trump on the economy: Trump said Iran is in very bad shape and its economy is collapsing after inflation passed 300%. He linked that to the resignation of Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad, saying the minister quit after stating the country has no oil, no economy and nothing.
- Oil and Hormuz: Trump said crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are continuing and predicted oil prices would fall once the war ends. Reopening the strait, a critical global energy corridor, is one of the stated aims of the proposals the two sides have exchanged in recent weeks.
- Sanctions pressure: The US Treasury warned foreign financial institutions Monday they could face sanctions without prior notice if they deal with Iran or its financial sector, escalating economic pressure alongside the talk of a diplomatic track.
- State of the talks: Trump rejected Tehran’s most recent offer and warned that military operations could escalate after the midterm elections. Doha said Tuesday its mediation is continuing without interruption, and that the two sides are still holding talks and exchanging messages through the Gulf state.
- Vance’s role: Vance declined to say whether he is leading the peace talks, despite being frequently described as the White House’s chief negotiator. He said his team is definitely involved, and that ultimately the president is the one running things.
Between the lines:
The two men describe the same uncertainty differently. Vance presents unclear decision-making in Tehran as a negotiating complication, while Trump casts it as the central obstacle after the removal of a second tier of Iranian leaders. Both framings sit awkwardly beside Washington’s offer of direct talks: a demand for concrete enrichment cuts requires a counterpart with the authority to deliver them, which is precisely what Tehran’s foreign ministry says the Americans already know exists.
What’s next
Watch whether Tehran responds to the enrichment-cut demand through Qatari channels, whether Washington names institutions hit by the Treasury warning, and whether Trump follows through on escalation after the midterm elections.
