Key Points
- Four Yemeni government sources told Reuters Houthi forces reached Perim island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait Friday.
- Government forces withdrew from the island and lost the facing coastal town of Dhubab, two government sources said.
- Control of the strait would squeeze a second oil corridor after Hormuz effectively closed six months ago.
The latest:
Iran-aligned Houthi forces reached the strategic island of Perim at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Friday, four Yemeni government sources told Reuters, extending a week-long advance down Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Two government sources said their forces had pulled out of Perim and that the Houthis had also taken Dhubab, the mainland town facing the island.
Details:
- The advance: The Houthis captured the coastal city of Mocha and the Hanish islands on Thursday before reaching Perim and Dhubab on Friday, according to Yemeni government sources cited by Reuters. The move puts the group on both sides of a waterway carrying a large share of Red Sea shipping.
- The counter-offensive: Yemeni government forces said they would try to retake the captured areas and deploy weapons and aircraft against Houthi movement in strategic zones, including the road to Mocha. Military spokesman Colonel Majed al-Nazili urged civilians to avoid the Taiz-Mocha route and stay clear of Houthi equipment.
- The oil stakes: Riyadh has leaned on the Red Sea route since the Iran conflict effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, which once carried a fifth of global oil. Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb would narrow a second transit corridor and, Reuters reported, hand Tehran an advantage in its war with Washington.
- Saudi pipeline smoke: Satellite imagery verified by Reuters showed black smoke Thursday near Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, south of Medina. Saudi Arabia gave no confirmation of any incident, and the Saudi government media office and Aramco did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
- The numbers: Saudi crude supply fell 2.3 million barrels per day month-on-month in August to 6 million bpd, the lowest in more than three decades, the International Energy Agency said Friday, partly due to attacks on ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb by groups linked to the Houthis.
- Markets: Global oil prices were on track to close the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May, easing slightly Friday after the Financial Times report on shipping talks. Ship-tracking data showed Hormuz transits fell to seven Thursday from 11, against a 10-day average of 10.
- Iran’s role: Reuters reported Thursday that the advance came with direct guidance from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, citing Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources. Two Iranian sources said Tehran told the Houthis last week to escalate attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised more funding, weapons and senior officers. Iran calls the group an ally but denies directing it militarily, saying it is “not a proxy”.
- Trump says no: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump twice Thursday urging strikes on the Houthis, Axios reported citing two U.S. officials, and Trump refused. Officials said the administration does not intend direct military action for now; the White House did not immediately respond to a comment request.
- Washington’s hedge: A regional source said Trump was weighing his options and that the U.S. was helping with targeting the Houthis. Axios reported the administration is stepping up support for Riyadh while trying to stay out of the fighting. Saudi Arabia has bombed Houthi targets but not the areas seized this week.
Background:
U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran began six months ago, prompting Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz. Aramco responded by ramping up crude flows through the East-West pipeline from the eastern coast to the Red Sea. The Houthis fought years of Saudi air strikes during Yemen’s civil war.
Between the lines:
The pipeline smoke and the Perim advance point at the same vulnerability: the Red Sea workaround Riyadh built after Hormuz closed now runs past territory the Houthis are taking. Trump’s refusal to strike, reported by Axios, leaves Saudi Arabia carrying the military response alone while its August output sits at a three-decade low.
What’s next
Gulf foreign ministers are due to meet their Iranian counterpart Monday in Salalah, Oman, on a temporary Hormuz shipping arrangement, the Financial Times reported. Watch for any Saudi confirmation on the pipeline and the promised Yemeni counter-offensive.
