The latest:
The war with Iran will end directly after the November 3 midterm elections, President Donald Trump told reporters before flying to a Republican conference in Dallas. The Wall Street Journal reported the same night that senior officials had already warned him the conflict could run to the end of his term in 2029. Trump also said oil prices would fall once the fighting stops.
Details:
- The warning: US officials told The Wall Street Journal that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned in closed talks that Tehran could withstand American pressure through the blockade or other military tactics, potentially extending the conflict past the next president’s inauguration in January 2029.
- Trump’s reasoning: Asked why he expects the war to end at the ballot box, Trump said Iranians can no longer hold out and are desperate to influence the vote, and accused Democrats of being willing to let Tehran obtain nuclear weapons if they win Congress.
- The oil numbers: Prices rose about 3% after the renewed escalation, with Brent crude passing 100 dollars a barrel for the first time since July. Goldman Sachs warned crude could exceed 120 dollars. Trump said prices would drop, but only after the midterms.
- The tanker war: US Central Command confirmed it destroyed five Iranian crude tankers after Tehran tried to attack American navy vessels, following three others hit Saturday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it struck two US ships and eight tankers near the Strait of Hormuz in response.
- Jordan strike: Iran fired 20 missiles at US targets in Jordan; the Jordanian army said it intercepted 18. CBS reported an A-10 lost a wing and roughly eight F-15s took light damage at Muwaffaq Salti air base. US officials told The New York Times damage was minor with no casualties.
- Nuclear file: The UN nuclear watchdog referred Iran to the Security Council over its violations, a decision Tehran threatened Monday to answer. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi accused Washington of attacking supervised nuclear sites, obstructing verification, then using that disruption as a pretext.
- The mountain: Trump said the United States may strike Iran’s fortified Har Hamakosh site near the damaged Natanz enrichment plant, citing what he called slight activity there. The site contains two deeply buried tunnel complexes seen as resistant to bunker-busting bombs.
- Tehran’s terms: Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said via Fars the war could end if Washington halts threats, withdraws Israeli forces from Lebanon, lifts the Yemen blockade, releases 24 billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets, and stops interfering in nuclear and missile programs.
- Political stakes: Trump’s approval has fallen to a record low over frustration with the war and the cost-of-living crisis. The Journal noted a years-long conflict would strain the US military and expose oil markets to prolonged disruption heading into the 2028 presidential race.
Background:
The US-Israeli war against Iran began in late February and recently entered its seventh month. Fighting between Israel and Iran largely stopped in April, while US and Iranian forces have continued exchanging fire, with enriched uranium buried inside Iran still unresolved.
Between the lines:
Two of Trump’s own timelines sit uneasily together: an immediate post-election end, and support for a long-term blockade and sanctions campaign meant to force dismantlement of the nuclear program. Commentators and Israeli sources have assessed that once the political cost of high oil prices fades after November 3, the president could instead resume intensified military action.
What’s next
Watch the November 3 midterms, whether Trump orders strikes on the Har Hamakosh site after citing activity there, Iran’s promised response to the IAEA referral, and Brent’s move above 100 dollars.
