The latest:
Iran is working to synchronize Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and Iraqi militias into a single simultaneous campaign against Israel, according to Israeli assessments reported by the Jerusalem Post. The reported planning is aimed at one specific failure: on October 7, Hamas attacked without the other fronts moving with it. Israeli military assessments say Hamas and Hezbollah have already begun coordinating stepped-up activity with Iranian help.
Details:
- The scenario: Israeli assessments describe preparations for a broad assault on several fronts at once, resembling October 7 in surprise and scale but designed from the outset to activate every component of the Iranian axis simultaneously rather than one front leading and others following.
- The October 7 gap: Hamas attacked without opening other fronts in full coordination. According to published American and Israeli assessments, Iran and Hezbollah were not briefed in advance on all details of the plan or the execution date. Hezbollah opened fire in the north but mounted no large-scale assault that morning.
- Captured documents: Internal Hamas planning documents seized in Gaza after the attack indicated Yahya Sinwar sought to widen the confrontation. One document stressed the need to “connect and prepare the external fronts” — Lebanon, Syria and Sinai — and to agree in advance on communication mechanisms for routine and wartime periods.
- Hamas leadership: Khalil al-Hayya, elected Hamas general leader in July, is regarded as close to Tehran and was for years central to maintaining the relationship. Assessments view him as strengthening the faction inside the leadership that wants the strategic tie with Iran preserved.
- Rebuilding the axis: An Israeli military assessment reported last month said renewed Hamas-Hezbollah coordination was detected with Iranian assistance, aimed at pressuring Israel from north and south at once. Joint exercises were recorded and coordination on political and military decisions increased across the axis.
- Quds Force contacts: Recent reports claimed senior Quds Force officials held talks with Hezbollah, Houthi and Iraqi militia commanders on widening the confrontation. Two senior Revolutionary Guard officers claimed group calls were held with leaders of the three fronts during an earlier lull, with Iranian advisers working alongside them on the ground.
- Shifting weight: Damage to Hezbollah and the fall of the Assad government in Syria raised the relative importance of the Iraqi militias and the Houthis, according to the assessments. Reports in the same period pointed to an Iranian push to accelerate missile and drone production and restore degraded capabilities.
- Israeli source: A military source told Maariv that Israel should remember the Soviet Union collapsed from economic breakdown rather than war, treating Iran’s economic deterioration as a factor. The source added that if a genuine existential threat emerged, the military should act against Iran even without international legitimacy.
- Analyst reading: Strategic adviser Yair Merton wrote in Maariv that Iran faces an almost impossible bind — an eroding economy, tightening US pressure, shrinking trade and currency channels — and may attempt a limited move using missiles, drones and allied factions to raise the cost of confrontation rather than to win it.
Between the lines:
The assessments turn a failure into a projection: because the fronts did not move together in 2023, Tehran is portrayed as engineering simultaneity from the start. Two of the cited drivers — al-Hayya’s elevation and the increased weight of Iraq and Yemen after Hezbollah’s losses — describe an axis reorganized under pressure, not one operating from strength.
What’s next
Watch for further Israeli military statements on detected Hamas-Hezbollah coordination, additional Quds Force contacts with the Iraqi and Yemeni fronts, and whether tightened US economic measures announced last week trigger the limited Iranian move analysts describe.
