The latest

Vladimir Putin has chosen to escalate Russia’s war in Ukraine after several weeks of deliberation over the summer, sources close to the Kremlin say. The decision comes as Russian forces remain largely stalemated and suffer tens of thousands of soldiers killed or severely wounded each month. Drone and missile attacks have devastated Ukraine while increasingly damaging Russian refineries, logistics hubs and the appearance of normal life at home.

Details

• CIA mission: On August 25th, CIA director John Ratcliffe made an unexpected trip to Moscow. Accounts differed over whether he warned Putin against attacking NATO countries or delivered a bleak assessment of Russia’s prospects to encourage negotiations. A longtime Putin associate said the president might interpret the visit as American weakness.
• European alarm: Finland requested Swedish aircraft and warships to help monitor its Russian border. Romania said it destroyed a Russian naval drone targeting a drilling platform in its waters, while Slovakia foiled an arson attack on a drone factory. Germany is preparing to blame Russia for an August 4th drone attack at Leipzig airport and probably impose further sanctions.
• Putin’s threats: After Ukrainian strikes hit Russian oil refineries, logistics centres and Wildberries warehouses, Putin accused Kyiv of opening a “Pandora’s box”. He promised retaliation against “the most sensitive sectors” of Ukraine’s economy and told the United Russia party that the operation would continue and move “only forward”.
• Internal pressure: Levada Centre polling found 57% of Russians called the situation “tense”, citing the war, deaths, mobilisation, drone attacks and uncertainty about the future. Trust in television propaganda is falling, young people are posting appeals to end the war, and Putin’s approval rating is sliding. Elite insiders also describe nearly five years without a decisive outcome as failure. An insider said Putin once told cronies, “They will hang me,” while discussing the risks surrounding the war.
• Escalation options: Potential steps include more hybrid warfare and sabotage against Ukraine’s allies, attacks on European supply routes and factories producing military equipment, and a wider assault on Ukraine’s energy system. Russia’s defence ministry said on August 30th that it was preparing a massive energy strike. Russian sources say Putin is committed to adding 300,000-400,000 troops, probably through regionally enforced recruitment.

Background

The original mobilisation order was never suspended, allowing the Kremlin to expand recruitment without announcing a new wave. Regional governments are expected to use coercion while keeping discontent local. Authorities are already testing the system in Penza, 750km south-east of Moscow.

What’s next

The clearest near-term indicators will be Russia’s announced strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the outcome of Penza’s recruitment test, and Germany’s decision on attributing the Leipzig airport attack and imposing related sanctions.