The latest:
Iranian foreign trade has shrunk by about 35% under US sanctions and a naval blockade of Iranian ports, President Masoud Pezeshkian told state media, as annual inflation reached 66% last month. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei urged the government to confront inflation, unemployment and price management, according to Reuters, while the Trump administration escalated what it called an economic victory day.
Details:
- The trade figure: Pezeshkian said exports and imports fell by close to 35% because of US sanctions and the naval blockade on Iranian ports, Reuters reported. He said Iran still sold roughly 90 million barrels of oil during the short-lived memorandum of understanding signed with Washington in June, when the US permitted Iranian crude sales.
- US escalation: Washington warned other states they face secondary sanctions unless they cut trade ties with Tehran, according to Reuters. The Treasury has not gone as far as sanctioning Iran’s main trading partners such as China and India, a step that could have carried consequences for the American and global economies.
- Banking measures: Treasury sanctioned Banque Misr over its dealings with Tehran and proposed a rule barring its UAE branches from processing dollar transactions, Reuters reported. A US official said the restrictions, if adopted, would deny those branches access to American financial institutions.
- Cairo’s response: Egypt’s central bank said it and the foreign ministry are in contact with US officials on the matter, adding that the measure is limited to Banque Misr’s dollar transactions in the UAE with correspondent banks only.
- Additional designations: According to a notice on the Treasury website, officials separately sanctioned one Hong Kong-based entity and one individual linked to Iran’s Bank Melli.
- Tehran’s rebuttal: Iran’s foreign ministry called the new US measures state terrorism and a crime against humanity endangering the health and livelihoods of millions of civilians, saying all states are obliged under international law not to implement them. The government pledged to curb inflation, create jobs, support domestic production and gradually reduce dollar dependence.
- Domestic cohesion: Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since the February 28 attack that killed his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said he barred officials from any act harming social cohesion and urged them to avoid demoralizing statements, amid concern that further financial pressure could trigger street protests.
- Oil ministry line: Ramin Hatami, managing director of the National Iranian South Oil Company, said crude exports and refinery supplies continued uninterrupted over the past six to eight months despite war conditions. He said output capacity rose 120,000 barrels per day in two years, with seven new contracts to add 380,000 more.
- Hormuz traffic: Preliminary shipping data showed seven cargo vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from 17 a day earlier and below the 10-day average of 15, Reuters reported. Tracking services estimate traffic at 5% to 15% of normal levels; the waterway carried 20% of global oil supply before the war.
- Diplomatic track: Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said he stressed in Tehran talks Thursday the importance of restoring pre-war freedom of navigation. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi called the talks “innovative,” repeating calls for Washington to halt military and economic pressure.
Background:
The US and Israel began the war on February 28. Qatar and Pakistan brokered a June memorandum of understanding that produced a short-lived ceasefire, which collapsed over disputes on the strait. Iran threatened to target any vessel crossing without its permission.
Between the lines:
The two Iranian narratives sit uneasily together: officials report uninterrupted oil exports and rising production capacity, while the president puts the trade contraction at 35% and inflation at 66%. Khamenei’s ban on demoralizing statements suggests leadership concern that the economic figures, not the military outcome, carry the greater political risk at home.
What’s next
Watch whether Washington adopts the proposed rule on Banque Misr’s UAE branches, the conditions list Mohsen Rezaei said Iran is preparing for reopening Hormuz, and daily transit counts through the strait.
