The latest

The United States faces mounting questions over whether it can protect allies across several theaters after the inconclusive Iran war consumed missile interceptors and long-range weapons. The strain coincides with Washington’s transfer of air-defense batteries and the only US aircraft carrier still deployed in the Pacific to the Middle East, scaled-back exercises with South Korea, and a freeze on $14 billion in military sales to Taiwan. Concern once centered on Washington’s willingness to intervene; officials and analysts now also debate whether its industrial base and arsenals can sustain decisive force across Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

Details

• Depletion estimate: CSIS estimates the US has expended half its prewar stock of interceptors, including Patriot and Thaad missiles, plus one-third of its Tomahawk and JASSM arsenal. It also estimates only 800 Patriot missiles remain amid heavy demand from Ukraine and Iran.
• Official denials: The White House said the military has more than enough munitions for President Trump’s objectives. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell called shortage claims false and said US forces retain everything needed to strike when and where the president chooses.
• Taiwan stakes: A Council on Foreign Relations study said the depleted arsenal can no longer deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan and urged immediate wartime-scale production of precision missiles. Some Asian analysts nevertheless consider a major regional conflict unlikely in the near term.
• Europe exposure: European officials increasingly doubt US support if Russia attacks. Ukraine has not received the additional Patriots it requested, while Moscow is counting on winter strikes against energy infrastructure. European missile-defense projects remain years from credible protection against Russian or Iranian missiles.
• Production imbalance: Russia produces more than 100 ballistic missiles monthly and a similar number of cruise missiles. Combined production by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran exceeds Western interceptor output several times, while defeating one ballistic missile usually requires two or three interceptors. Lockheed Martin delivered 620 PAC-3 MSE interceptors last year, up more than 20%.
• Gulf pressure: Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states opposed renewed full-scale US operations against Iran because their interceptor stocks were too low to protect critical infrastructure. Iranian missile forces were degraded by Israeli and American bombing but were not fully suppressed.

Background

Modern ballistic missiles are accurate enough for conventional strikes, including by middle powers such as Iran. Their interceptors remain among the most sophisticated and expensive military systems and can be made by only a handful of companies. That cost and complexity contrast with drones and counter-drone systems, which are generally simpler and cheaper.

What’s next

The next indicator is funding for two Pentagon contracts: a $59 billion Lockheed Martin deal intended to triple PAC-3 production by the end of 2030, and a seven-year, $35 billion contract to quadruple Thaad interceptor production. Neither contract has yet been fully funded.