The latest:
Approval of President Donald Trump has fallen to 33%, matching the weakest reading of either of his terms, according to a four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll published Monday evening. Some 64% said they disapprove. The survey landed as fighting in the Gulf continues, pump prices climb and Republicans defend a narrow House majority on November 3.
Details:
- The numbers: Reuters/Ipsos found 33% approval against 64% disapproval, the same floor Trump hit in December 2017 during his previous term. The poll was conducted online among 1,166 US adults nationwide, with a margin of error of three percentage points in either direction.
- War expectations: About 80% of Americans said US involvement in Iran will last a long time, including 87% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans, according to the poll. Only 16% expected the conflict to end within a few weeks, against Trump’s initial framing of a matter of weeks.
- Trump’s defense: At a rally in New York state on Friday, Trump told supporters that paying “a little extra” for gasoline was worth keeping a very evil country from acquiring nuclear weapons. The remark came as the Gulf war disrupted a fifth of global oil trade.
- Cost verdict: Only one in five Americans said the war was worth the price, per Reuters/Ipsos. Among Republicans, just half judged the conflict worthwhile — a split inside the president’s own party on a war he promised would be short.
- Economy flip: Registered voters preferred Democrats over Republicans on managing the economy, 38% to 35%. Reuters said it was the first time in roughly a decade its polling showed Democrats favored on the issue. Democrats also led on handling the cost of living.
- Immigration erosion: Republicans kept an edge on immigration, 40% to 38%, but the two-point gap was the narrowest of Trump’s current term. In January 2025 the Republican lead on the issue stood at 26 points.
- Enforcement backlash: Reuters attributed the immigration slide to violent confrontations and rising numbers held in detention centers, including children, even as the administration oversaw a sharp drop in border crossings and expanded enforcement nationwide.
- Second measure: The Economist’s YouGov tracker put Trump’s net approval at -27, a record low and down 0.9 points week-on-week, with 34% approving, 61% disapproving and 4% unsure. It said 61% are worried about his ability to handle international crises wisely.
- Fuel prices: The Economist reported Trump’s net rating on inflation and prices fell to -44 in August, his worst of the term. Average gasoline was below $3 a gallon before the Iran war and is now around $4, even as inflation eased somewhat.
- Map risk: State-level estimates from The Economist showed Trump’s own voters still overwhelmingly satisfied, but discontent spreading inside states he carried in 2024 — a warning sign for Republicans in tight midterm races.
Background:
Trump campaigned on curbing inflation and avoiding prolonged wars, and pledged the confrontation with Iran would last only weeks. He ordered strikes alongside Israel; Iran continued disrupting oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to varying degrees even after a ceasefire was reached.
Between the lines:
The two surveys point the same direction from different instruments: a floor-level job rating alongside a -44 net score on prices suggests the political damage runs through the pump, not only the war. That reading is reinforced by the economic-management flip and by half of Republicans declining to call the war worth its cost — erosion inside the coalition, not only outside it.
What’s next
The November 3 congressional elections, with Republicans defending a slim House majority and Democrats targeting the Senate. Watch gasoline prices, the durability of the ceasefire and Hormuz traffic, plus the next Reuters/Ipsos and YouGov readings.
