The latest
The crisis began in the air. Washington and Riyadh said their strikes targeted sites used by Iran-backed groups to launch drones at American and Saudi targets. Iraqi and militia sources reported that fighters and Iranian advisers were killed in the raids. But the wider consequence is not purely military: The strikes have forced the question of weapons inside Iraq into a timetable Baghdad would have preferred to avoid.
The government cannot ignore the bombing of sites on its territory. Nor can it defend factions accused by Saudi Arabia of using Iraq as a launchpad for attacks. That is the core dilemma. A statement on sovereignty does not erase the events that led to the raids, just as an Iraqi investigation cannot by itself answer who holds the right to make military decisions. If factions can open an external front, the state bears the domestic and international costs even when it was not part of their decision.
In that setting, the prime minister’s effort to place weapons under state control becomes more than a reform program. It is a test of the balance of power within Iraq’s Shiite political sphere, where influential factions retain arms, money and regional relationships. Sources close to the government say Zaidi’s advisers have sent indirect messages to Muqtada al-Sadr. There has been no public confirmation, but the outreach reflects the need for political and popular cover that the government cannot provide alone if the confrontation moves from an administrative order to a clash with armed groups.
Details
- Cause of the raids: US Central Command said Iraqi factions carried out more than 30 drone attacks in one week against American forces and Saudi facilities.
- Saudi participation: Riyadh joined strikes on sites inside Iraq, shifting from intercepting drones to targeting the infrastructure it says launched them.
- Casualties: The Popular Mobilization Forces said 20 of its fighters were killed, while reports also indicated Iranian advisers died in the attacks.
- Baghdad’s response: Iraq’s presidency condemned the strikes as a violation of sovereignty while rejecting the use of Iraqi territory to attack neighboring states.
- Official inquiry: Iraqi authorities opened an investigation into allegations that attacks on Saudi Arabia originated from its territory.
- The security dilemma: Many factions formally belong to the PMF but retain varying degrees of independent command and decision-making.
- Iranian presence: Reports have pointed to Revolutionary Guard advisers near militia sites, though Baghdad has not publicly confirmed their roles or the scale of their presence.
- Sadr’s role: Muqtada al-Sadr has repeatedly opposed dragging Iraq into regional wars, but his position on any new government move against the factions remains unclear.
- Competing camps: Zaidi faces forces seeking a state monopoly on arms and others that see armed factions as essential to their influence and Iraq’s place in Iran’s regional axis.
Between the lines
The raids did not create Iraq’s divisions. They removed the cover that allowed Baghdad to postpone confronting them. What had been treated as an internal file is now tied to Saudi and US security interests and to Iran’s ability to operate through allies. That makes the cost of leaving the status quo in place higher than before.
What to watch
The next test will be the government’s response to its investigation. Pursuing launch sites or dismantling drone networks would put Baghdad into direct conflict with politically and militarily powerful factions. Settling for condemnation, however, could lead Saudi Arabia and the United States to treat Iraq as an open arena for retaliation. Between those options, Sadr’s position may help determine whether Baghdad can still avoid a wider internal confrontation.
