Emma Tucker
Five months into the war, the United States and Iran are confronting the limits of military power. Both sides have demonstrated their ability to inflict damage, but neither has converted force or resilience into a decisive political outcome.
President Donald Trump is threatening to expand the bombing campaign, calculating that greater pressure will eventually compel Tehran to retreat. Iran, however, continues to retaliate directly and through its allies, widening the battlefield instead of accepting Washington’s terms.
The war has consequently entered a familiar cycle. The United States strikes Iranian targets to weaken Tehran’s capacity to attack American forces and commercial shipping. Iran responds with fresh attacks, prompting Washington to escalate again. Each round is presented as necessary to deter the next, but instead provides its justification.
America retains overwhelming military superiority. Yet that advantage has neither secured reliable passage through the Strait of Hormuz nor ended Iranian attacks. It has also failed to force Tehran into a settlement on Washington’s terms.
Iran cannot defeat the United States in a conventional war. It can, however, prolong the conflict, threaten shipping, drive up energy prices and intensify pressure on Gulf states. That imbalance is turning the war into a test of endurance rather than a contest likely to produce a clear victory.
Washington is betting that strikes and economic pressure will exhaust the Iranian regime. Tehran is wagering that American casualties, rising costs and political divisions will eventually force Trump to lower his demands.
The danger is growing as Iran’s allies become more deeply involved. Expanded Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have opened another front and placed an alternative route for Saudi oil exports at risk while passage through Hormuz remains disrupted.
The central problem is not that either side lacks power. It is that neither has established a viable path for converting force into a settlement. Every unsuccessful round of attacks increases the temptation to try a more severe level of escalation.
Without an achievable political objective or a credible negotiating channel, America and Iran may continue expanding the war without bringing its end any closer. The decisive question will then be not which side can deliver the harder blow, but which can endure the longer and more costly conflict.
Source: The Wall Street Journal