Why Iran Is Returning to War

Vali Nasr

The United States and Iran are sliding back toward war, not because they misunderstood the memorandum that ended the first phase of fighting, but because the agreement attempted to preserve a balance of power Washington wanted to change and Tehran was determined to protect.

The United States entered the war seeking to topple the Iranian regime or force it to accept American restrictions on its nuclear program and regional role. Iran instead emerged from the first phase claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz, gaining leverage that helped push Washington toward the agreement.

Iran’s leaders never trusted the deal. They viewed it as a temporary American retreat intended to ease pressure on the global economy and give Washington time to rebuild its reserves and military readiness. Several developments reinforced that suspicion: Iranian assets remained frozen, Tehran’s demands were disregarded in the Israel-Lebanon agreement, additional US forces arrived in the Gulf and commercial ships were encouraged to cross Hormuz without coordinating with Iran.

Taken together, these steps appeared to Tehran to be an effort to erode the leverage it had gained during the war. Iran’s leadership believes restraint would invite further American pressure and that escalation is the only way to force Washington into serious negotiations over a settlement offering security guarantees and economic relief.

Control of Hormuz is Tehran’s most valuable bargaining chip. Surrendering it would leave Iran with little leverage in future talks. The large turnout for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral also strengthened the leadership’s belief that its position on the strait commands broad nationalist support.

Against this backdrop, Iran attacked two tankers near the Omani coast to frustrate Washington’s attempt to reopen the waterway. The United States responded with an extensive bombing campaign against missile batteries, drone sites and military and civilian infrastructure, seeking to raise the cost of Iranian resistance.

Tehran expected the war to resume and may see an advantage in fighting before the United States fully restores its readiness and the global economy recovers from energy and supply-chain shocks. Iran is therefore likely to absorb American strikes while expanding attacks on US bases and infrastructure across the Gulf, demonstrating that Washington cannot determine the level of confrontation alone.

Iran is also betting that closing Hormuz — and potentially threatening Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea — will generate enough global economic pressure to make President Donald Trump retreat first. Its leaders may be overestimating their ability to sustain a prolonged conflict, but they believe their willingness to endure greater pain gives them an advantage in an existential struggle and strengthens their position at the next negotiating table.

Source: Financial Times