The latest
A report by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) argues that Saudi Arabia has fundamentally adjusted its Yemen strategy through undeclared understandings with the Houthis. The report says a series of political and military developments suggest Riyadh has shifted from defeating the Houthis to managing the conflict in line with its own security priorities.
Details
• Core assessment: The report argues that the Houthis’ failure to expand into certain areas after Saudi and Emirati military redeployments may indicate tacit coordination rather than purely military restraint.
• Direct negotiations: According to the report, Saudi-Houthi talks hosted by Oman since 2022 largely excluded key Yemeni allies and were followed by a halt in Houthi attacks on Saudi territory.
• Prisoner exchanges: The report views recent prisoner swap agreements, particularly the large exchange in 2026, as evidence that Riyadh is preparing to end its military involvement while leaving the Houthis in control of Sana’a.
• Government performance: The report criticizes the internationally recognized Yemeni government for deteriorating public services and economic conditions, arguing that governance has increasingly been managed from Riyadh rather than Aden.
• Southern demands: The report cites southern tribal leader and activist Saeed Nasser Al-Awlaki as saying that southerners “will no longer accept others speaking on their behalf,” reflecting growing support for southern independence.
Background
Saudi Arabia began direct engagement with the Houthis in 2022 through Omani mediation alongside a UN-backed truce that significantly reduced fighting. Although a comprehensive peace agreement has yet to materialize, contacts have continued. Riyadh continues to publicly support Yemen’s unity, while some analysts argue its primary objective has shifted toward securing its borders and ending the war.
What to watch
Future Saudi-Houthi negotiations, UN mediation efforts, and the positions of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council and the Southern Transitional Council will help determine whether Yemen moves toward a unified political settlement or a more entrenched de facto partition.
