The latest

President Donald Trump vowed to hit Iran “hard” after Tehran retaliated for a US strike on Larak Island with missile and drone attacks against American military sites in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The first exchange of fire in more than a month drove oil prices up more than 3 per cent and above $90 a barrel. Trump said one Iranian missile penetrated US air defences while the others were intercepted, and promised an American response.

Details

• US strike: US Central Command called Sunday’s operation a “limited, precise action” against two Iranian rocket launchers. It said the Revolutionary Guards appeared ready to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. The death toll rose to three after a wounded person died in hospital, the Guards-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported.
• Iran’s response: The Revolutionary Guards said missiles and drones struck technical and maintenance infrastructure and fighter-jet positions at two US bases in Jordan. Iran’s regular army said it launched dozens of attack drones at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE. An Iranian official threatened responses “dozens of times greater” for each US attack.
• Kharg warning: Trump posted an AI-generated video depicting strikes on Kharg Island, Iran’s vital oil export hub. Vice-president JD Vance said the post warned Tehran to stop attacking commercial shipping or face consequences, while stressing that Trump does not announce military operations on social media.
• Economic front: Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said US pressure sought to create conditions for Tehran to return to negotiations, arguing Iran was striking militarily because it was losing economically. Deputy foreign minister Hamid Ghanbari said new sanctions would neither change Iran’s policies nor force the country to abandon them.
• Strategic stakes: The six-month war has settled into stalemate and US-Iran talks have collapsed. Washington has not fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which carried a fifth of global oil and gas flows before the war. Larak sits at the strait’s entrance and hosts missile, mine and drone capabilities used to monitor or attack shipping.
• Regional reaction: Qatar condemned the attacks on Jordan and the UAE as a dangerous escalation and urged an immediate halt to military action and a return to dialogue. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged restraint and sustained diplomacy in talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek.

Background

Pezeshkian said Iran was “not seeking war” but would respond firmly to aggressors. A senior Guards adviser, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, said more than 90 per cent of Iran’s missile stockpile remained untouched and warned that further attacks would impose a heavy cost.

What’s next

Trump now faces a decision on the scale and timing of the military response he promised. Regional diplomacy continues at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation security forum in Bishkek, where Pezeshkian is attending meetings.

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The latest

US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, before Iran launched ballistic missiles at two bases hosting American personnel in Jordan. US Central Command said the launchers were preparing to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the waterway, while Jordan’s armed forces reported intercepting eight missiles on Monday.

Details

• Larak operation: Central Command described the operation as “limited” and “precise,” targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps minelaying forces posing an imminent threat to civilian mariners and commercial shipping. Spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said US forces completed clearing mines from international shipping routes last week and would prevent Iran from laying more.
• Iranian response: The IRGC said it launched ballistic missiles at the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in response to the Larak strike. Both facilities host US forces. American officials said US forces defended against the missiles. Jordan hosts nearly 4,000 US troops and is a staging ground for regional operations.
• Casualties reported: The Revolutionary Guards said the strike killed and wounded several Iranian service members and civilians. US officials identified the launchers as IRGC assets. Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebi called the attack a “strategic and fatal error” by the Trump administration and warned of “severe repercussions.”
• Shipping disruption: Larak is used by the Revolutionary Guards to monitor vessel traffic from a strategic position overlooking one of the world’s most important shipping routes. Attacks on commercial vessels have reduced strait traffic to a trickle. A tanker entering near Oman was struck by a projectile Saturday, UK Maritime Trade Operations said.
• Tanker mine claim: The IRGC Navy said an unidentified supertanker caught fire and stopped after striking two sea mines on what it called an “illegal” southern route. It declared its transit regulations mandatory and warned vessels against violating them.
• Regional readiness: The UAE Defence Ministry denied reports that Al Minhad Air Base had come under missile attack, calling them false and saying forces remained on high alert. The denial followed the interception of an Iranian drone over UAE territorial waters.
• Pressure strategy: The Trump administration combined increased sanctions with a blockade of Iranian ports to press Tehran to reopen the strait and make nuclear concessions. Trump had paused strikes at Gulf allies’ request to give diplomacy another chance, but later warned that vessels laying more mines would be destroyed.

Background

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast” to isolate Iran economically and reduce the likelihood of renewed large-scale combat. The administration has sought to avoid fighting that would further deplete US stocks of missile interceptors and other weapons.

What’s next

Washington’s decision on any response to attacks targeting the Jordanian bases and vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz will be the next concrete indicators after the Larak strike and tanker incidents.

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Escalation is no longer merely a pressure tactic preceding negotiations; it has become a means of reshaping their terms. Iran’s surprise attack ended a brief battlefield pause that had calmed energy markets and demonstrated Tehran’s willingness to test Washington’s capacity to retaliate without triggering a broader war. Trump, meanwhile, combined his promise of a punishing response with an insistence that talks could continue, seeking to preserve deterrence without eliminating the diplomatic exit.

Iran’s decision reflects the Revolutionary Guard’s expanding influence over the country’s leadership and its growing ability to set the confrontation’s tempo. Analysts argue that the military establishment has become more comfortable with an extended conflict that strengthens its domestic authority and postpones scrutiny of economic hardship and political repression. Greater autonomy for regional commanders offers flexibility and resilience, but it also makes Iranian military behavior less predictable and increases the danger of miscalculation.

At the same time, the battlefield is expanding. The United States and Saudi Arabia struck Iran-aligned groups in Iraq following attacks on American military positions and Saudi energy infrastructure. The Houthis have entered the confrontation by targeting ports and facilities around the Red Sea, while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. What began as a bilateral conflict is becoming an interconnected network of fronts in which a limited strike can move oil prices or draw additional states into combat.

Details

• The Iranian attack: A senior Jordanian official said air defenses intercepted five missiles over the eastern desert, causing no casualties or material damage.
• The declared targets: The Revolutionary Guard said it targeted a US base and Central Command’s regional headquarters in Jordan in response to what it called American aggression.
• The expected response: Trump vowed to strike Iran hard but provided no timetable, target list or indication of the operation’s scale.
• The diplomatic opening: The US president said talks would be allowed to continue, although Washington and Tehran remain far from formally resuming peace negotiations.
• The Iraqi front: Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces said 20 of its members were killed in US and Saudi strikes against armed groups aligned with Tehran.
• The Hormuz dispute: Iran rejected an Omani proposal for shared management of shipping lanes and demanded sole authority over vessels entering the Gulf.
• Washington’s constraints: The administration faces concerns over dwindling stocks of air-defense interceptors, higher fuel prices and growing domestic opposition to the war ahead of the midterm elections.
• The oil shock: Brent crude jumped roughly 7% to 8%, climbing above $90 a barrel as the brief halt in attacks ended.

Between the Lines

Iran is betting that its ability to threaten US bases and vital shipping corridors will make continued warfare more costly than negotiating on Tehran’s terms. But that gamble assumes Washington will choose a contained response—an assumption that could collapse if Trump tries to restore deterrence by targeting military, nuclear or infrastructure sites inside Iran.

What to Watch

The next phase will depend on the scale of the American response. A calibrated strike could push both sides back toward diplomacy, while an expanded target list could unleash another cycle of attacks against US forces, regional allies and energy facilities. Shipping movements through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, along with the conduct of Iraqi militias and the Houthis, will indicate whether Iran’s escalation is designed to improve its bargaining position or open a longer phase of the war.

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President Donald Trump pledged a forceful response against Iran following the missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan, saying Washington would “teach them a harsh lesson.” At the same time, he insisted talks with Tehran would continue. The United States and Saudi Arabia also launched strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, while Washington imposed new sanctions on Iran and oil prices surged.

Details

• Trump’s warning: In an interview with Fox News, Trump said the United States would respond forcefully to the attack, adding that U.S. forces had intercepted the Iranian missiles. He also described his recent meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “excellent,” saying, “Now he understands the situation.”
• Military response: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said Iran launched several ballistic missiles toward a U.S. base in Jordan, all of which were intercepted. About two hours later, the United States and Saudi Arabia carried out precision strikes against Iran-backed militia targets in eastern Iraq.
• Iraqi reaction: Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said several of its facilities were struck by U.S.-Saudi attacks, calling them a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Iraqi reports said eight people were killed and four wounded, although Washington has not independently confirmed those figures.
• New sanctions: The U.S. Treasury Department announced a fresh round of Iran-related sanctions targeting eight oil tankers and ten entities, including six companies based in China, as part of Washington’s broader pressure campaign against Tehran.
• Markets and shipping: Brent crude climbed more than 6% to nearly $90 per barrel following Trump’s remarks. Reuters also reported a decline in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while vessel movements through the Bab al-Mandab Strait increased.

Background

The attack in Jordan marks the latest episode in the long-running confrontation between the United States and Iran and its regional allies. U.S. military bases in Jordan, Iraq, and Syria form a key part of Washington’s regional force posture aimed at protecting American personnel and deterring attacks. At the same time, the Trump administration has pursued a dual-track strategy of military pressure and economic sanctions while keeping diplomatic channels with Tehran open. The Strait of Hormuz remains especially critical, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade, making any military escalation there a major risk for global energy markets.

Between the lines

Washington’s latest moves combine three parallel tracks: military retaliation, tighter economic sanctions, and continued diplomacy. Together, they suggest the administration is seeking to raise the cost of attacks on U.S. forces without signaling an immediate shift toward a broader military confrontation with Iran.

What to watch

The next key indicators will be whether Washington expands the scope of its military operations, whether Iran retaliates directly or through regional proxies, how the new sanctions affect Iranian oil exports, and whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is further disrupted.

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Several days of calm between the US and Iran ended as missiles, drones and airstrikes returned across the region. US Central Command said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a surprise ballistic-missile attack on American forces and that every projectile was intercepted.

Jordan’s armed forces said their air defenses destroyed five missiles launched from Iran toward the kingdom. The US and Saudi Arabia then struck Popular Mobilization Forces positions across several Iraqi provinces after blaming Tehran-linked groups for dozens of drone attacks on American forces and Saudi oil facilities.

The escalation came a day after Donald Trump described contacts with Iran as “very friendly” and met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Its timing exposed the fragility of efforts to reopen Hormuz as a first step toward formal nuclear negotiations and a permanent end to the war.

Details

• US account: Central Command said all Iranian missiles were intercepted and that 30 drone attacks targeting American forces during the previous 72 hours had failed.
• Iranian account: State media said the Revolutionary Guards targeted a US airbase and command center in response to “aggressive US actions,” without identifying a specific operation.
• Jordanian defense: Amman said its monitoring systems detected five missiles before air-defense units destroyed them under established rules of engagement.
• Iraq strikes: US-Saudi operations hit Popular Mobilization Forces headquarters across several provinces, with the deadliest attack reported in Nineveh.
• Casualties: Iraqi faction sources told Agence France-Presse that at least 10 members were killed, with injuries elsewhere and the death toll expected to rise.
• Saudi position: Riyadh described the strikes as self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter and accused Iran-backed groups of choosing escalation.
• Iraqi response: The Popular Mobilization Forces called the attacks a violation of Iraqi sovereignty and said official security institutions, personnel and property were hit.
• Tanker claim: Iranian state media claimed Tehran struck and halted three tankers using a route it described as unsafe and illegal.
• Market reaction: Brent crude rose more than 4% to about $87.50 a barrel, rebounding from its biggest three-day decline since April 2020.
• Washington meeting: Trump and Netanyahu described their talks positively. Israel said it would respond if attacked but would leave the broader course to the US president.

Between the lines

The attack does not necessarily end diplomacy, but it shows that the pause never became a binding ceasefire. Each side is using force to improve its position: Tehran is applying pressure through military bases and shipping, Washington is retaliating without immediately returning to a broad campaign, and Riyadh has moved from intercepting drones to striking their launch networks.

What to watch

Iran’s response to the Iraq strikes, the final casualty toll and shipping through Hormuz will indicate whether the exchange can be contained. The diplomatic outlook also depends on whether Omani mediators can overcome Tehran’s rejection of shared control over the strait and whether Trump chooses restraint or renewed major operations.

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The United States and Iran moved closer to a wider military confrontation after the U.S. military announced that two American service members were killed and another remains missing following an Iranian attack on a base hosting U.S. forces in Jordan. Washington responded with strikes targeting Iranian military facilities and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces.

Details:

• U.S. response: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said the strikes targeted coastal surveillance sites, air defense facilities, and forces it said were responsible for the attack on American troops in Jordan.
• Iranian attacks: Iranian state media reported that U.S. strikes hit sites in Sirik, Bandar Abbas, and Qeshm Island. Iran also announced attacks targeting Kuwait, while Bahrain and Jordan said they intercepted missiles and drones.
• U.S. casualties: The U.S. military confirmed the deaths of two service members and the disappearance of a third. The Wall Street Journal reported that the attack targeted Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.
• Military buildup: The Wall Street Journal and Israeli media reported that additional U.S. aerial refueling aircraft and fighter jets have arrived in the region as Washington tightened its travel advisory for the Middle East and later issued a worldwide security alert.
• Israel kept out: Israeli media, citing Israeli officials, reported that Washington currently does not want Israel to participate in military operations despite close security coordination, in an effort to limit further regional escalation.

Background

The latest escalation followed the collapse of the understanding announced by President Donald Trump with Iran weeks ago. Since then, the conflict has expanded to include attacks on military bases, critical infrastructure, and strategic locations across the Gulf, while prospects for renewed diplomacy have diminished.

Between the lines

The deaths of U.S. service members mark a significant turning point, increasing pressure within the Trump administration for a stronger military response. At the same time, according to Israeli officials, Washington is seeking to keep Israel out of the fighting to reduce the risk of the conflict expanding into a multi-front regional war.

What to Watch:

Attention will focus on the scale of any additional U.S. military response, whether Iran broadens its attacks on American bases or regional infrastructure, and whether diplomatic efforts emerge to prevent further escalation.

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Jordan has become a key battlefield in the confrontation between the United States and Iran after U.S. officials said American forces were targeted in four Iranian attacks over five days. The latest strike killed two U.S. service members and left another missing, a development that could push Washington toward expanding its military campaign against Iran, according to The New York Times and U.S. officials.

Details:

• Repeated attacks: U.S. officials said the four attacks targeted American bases in Jordan, injuring dozens of personnel and damaging several Black Hawk helicopters.
• Jordan’s new role: According to U.S. officials, the Pentagon moved forces from Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE to Jordan and Israel before the conflict as regional basing options became more constrained.
• Azraq air base: Officials said Iran struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base twice within 48 hours. The first attack wounded about 20 U.S. troops, while the second killed two service members and injured several others.
• Iran’s account: The Iranian military said it targeted fuel storage facilities at the U.S. base in Zarqa with drones, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, cited by the semi-official Fars News Agency, said it used missiles and drones against aircraft shelters.
• Changing tactics: A U.S. official said Iran has begun combining ballistic missiles with one-way attack drones in coordinated strikes to complicate U.S. and Jordanian air defenses.

Background

Jordan has long hosted U.S. military bases and logistics hubs supporting operations across Syria, Iraq, and the wider region. As the U.S.-Iran confrontation has intensified, the country has taken on greater importance after Washington repositioned forces from several Gulf states to Jordan, according to U.S. officials.

Between the lines

If the U.S. account is accurate, the frequency of the attacks suggests Iran is expanding its focus beyond traditional U.S. bases in the Gulf to alternative operational hubs, making Jordan a direct component of the broader deterrence struggle.

What to Watch:

Attention will focus on the scope of the U.S. response after U.S. Central Command announced a new round of airstrikes on Iran, and on whether further attacks against American bases in Jordan follow.

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The United States on Friday broadened its military campaign against Iran by striking logistics infrastructure, including bridges and an airport, while Tehran announced attacks on facilities and U.S. military sites in Gulf states hosting American forces, marking the most significant expansion of targets since last week’s ceasefire collapsed, according to Reuters and U.S. and Iranian officials.

Details

• U.S. strikes: U.S. Central Command said it targeted “military logistics infrastructure,” while Iranian state media reported that several bridges in Hormozgan province and Iranshahr Airport were hit.
• Iranian response: Kuwait said one of its electricity generation and water desalination plants was damaged in an Iranian attack. Tehran also claimed it struck U.S. bases in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, as well as an American radar site in Oman.
• Maritime tensions: U.S. Marines boarded an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz as part of maritime enforcement operations. Separately, another vessel was seized off Yemen, though a maritime security source said the incident appeared to be piracy unrelated to the Iran conflict.
• Energy markets: Continued fighting has kept oil prices near recent highs while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Roughly one-fifth of global oil trade normally passes through the waterway, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence and the International Energy Agency.
• Regional dimension: Lebanon’s Nidaa Al-Watan newspaper reported that Iran had instructed regional allies to prepare for the possibility of a wider conflict. The report has not been independently verified, and Israel has not entered the latest round of fighting.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important maritime chokepoint for oil and gas exports, carrying about 20% of global oil trade under normal conditions. Since the ceasefire collapsed, both sides have increasingly shifted from military targets toward critical infrastructure, raising fears that the conflict could spread across the Gulf and key international shipping lanes.

Between the lines

The growing focus on bridges, power stations and desalination facilities suggests both sides are seeking to impose greater economic costs and domestic pressure rather than limiting operations to conventional military targets, increasing the likelihood of broader regional involvement.

What to watch

Attention will focus on whether Washington expands strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, whether Tehran follows through on threats to widen attacks or disrupt shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and how global shipping and oil markets respond.

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The confrontation between Washington and Tehran entered a new phase early Wednesday after U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced what it described as self-defense strikes against Iran.

CENTCOM said the operation was ordered directly by President Donald Trump and was a proportional response to what it called an unprovoked Iranian attack that downed a U.S. Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking to ABC News correspondent Jonathan Karl, Trump said the helicopter incident required a response.

“They shot down our helicopter, and we’re responding,” Trump said. “I think the response has to be very strong.”

Details

• Reports from Iran described explosions in Hormozgan province, Bandar Abbas, near Sirik port, and on Qeshm Island.

• Fox News correspondent Jennifer Griffin reported that U.S. strikes targeted radar systems and air-defense installations around the Strait of Hormuz.

• A senior U.S. official later said Washington struck roughly 20 Iranian military sites overnight.

• CENTCOM said the operation involved precision-guided munitions launched by U.S. Air Force and Navy aircraft against air-defense and radar facilities.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced retaliatory operations shortly afterward.

The IRGC said it targeted the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain with drones and launched long-range missiles at U.S. positions linked to Azraq Air Base in Jordan.

Iranian state-affiliated media claimed the attacks targeted F-35 shelters and command centers.

A senior U.S. official told Reuters that American and allied defenses intercepted nearly all Iranian missiles and drones. The official said there were no reports of casualties or major damage.

Jordan and Gulf states on alert

• Bahrain and Kuwait activated air-defense systems following the Iranian response.

• Jordan said it intercepted five missiles launched toward Azraq Air Base.

• The Jordanian Armed Forces said falling debris caused no injuries or material damage and stressed that Jordan would not allow violations of its airspace.

At the same time, Iranian media reported the downing of a U.S. MQ-9 drone over Bushehr province, while regional reports indicated heightened alert levels at U.S. military facilities in Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait.

Mixed signals from Tehran and Washington

Despite the exchange of strikes, political messaging suggested neither side had fully abandoned de-escalation.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said foreign military forces near Iran remain a source of instability and warned that security would require their departure from the region.

At the same time, Iranian media quoted Foreign Ministry officials as saying the Apache incident was “not intentional,” a statement widely viewed as an attempt to contain the crisis.

Trump later softened his rhetoric in comments to The Wall Street Journal, describing the helicopter incident as “not a big deal” and saying the pilot was safe. He also vowed to maintain economic pressure on Iran.

What to watch

Behind the military confrontation, diplomatic contacts appear to remain active. According to The New York Times, Trump administration officials are still discussing four core nuclear issues with Tehran as part of a framework that U.S. officials believe could freeze Iran’s nuclear program for roughly 15 years.

The key question now is whether the latest exchange pushes both sides toward a broader regional conflict or accelerates efforts to reach a political settlement.

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